Renewable energies could exceed destroyed capacity

How Ukraine can rebuild its energy system

The researchers then collected data on the destruction. “We’ve established that practically all Ukraine’s large, centralised power plants have been attacked since February 2022. This has reduced the total electricity generation capacity to around one-third of the pre-war level. The grid has also been considerably weakened by attacks on transmission lines and substations, particularly in the east of the country,” says Tobias Schmidt, Professor of Energy and Technology Policy and Head of the ETH Institute of Science, Technology and Policy (ISPT). “One year after the start of the war in February 2022, 76 percent of thermal power plants had been destroyed; now the figure is 95 percent,” Iryna Doronina adds. “And all the large hydroelectric power plants have also failed.”

Nuclear power plays a significant role in Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia plant in southwest Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, was occupied by Russian troops and hasn’t supplied electricity since September 2022. A further three nuclear power plants with seven reactors between them remain operational in the east and south and continue to supply Ukraine with electricity. However, Russia’s repeated attacks on the distribution grid lead to hours-long power cuts.

The research team therefore focused on a decentralized power supply for their recommendations for rebuilding the infrastructure. “A centralised system is easier to attack, whereas independent systems are more resistant to war and crisis”, Doronina says. “Renewable power plants that harness solar or wind energy are particularly suitable for distributed infrastructure and can be installed much more quickly than centralized conventional plants,” Florian Egli adds.

But is there enough potential in Ukraine to focus on renewable energies? To answer this question, the researchers created detailed maps of Ukraine’s various regions, showing the areas in which power generation from solar and wind energy is most favourable. The team took into account several criteria such as altitude and topography, population density as well as distance to settlements and to power grids. The researchers also considered protected areas, state agricultural land and the requirements and limitations of Ukrainian legislation.

On this basis, the team estimated the potential energy output by region. This so-called technical potential is enormous. The researchers estimate that the potential for wind energy is around 180 gigawatts, while for solar energy it’s around 39 gigawatts. A total capacity of 219 gigawatts would vastly exceed the generation capacity of 59 gigawatts that Ukraine had at the start of the war. In all the regional power grids, the potential for renewables far surpasses the power generation capacity destroyed during the war.

Furthermore, the researchers analyzed socio-political, economic, environmental and technological factors to determine which regions are most suitable for a transition to renewable energy systems. The greatest potential for solar and wind energy lies in the south and east of the country.

The study can serve as a basis for the reconstruction and restructuring of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. It has already been presented to the Joint Research Center of the European Commission. The transparency it creates can also reduce the risk of corruption and the risk for investors.